Trading The Mini's

January Report

2012-02-01T13:51:00.005-05:00

January was a slow month in terms of trades with only one swing trade and 7 day-trades.

Day-trading.... 2 winners, 4 losers, 1 even. ($260) (5.1%)
Swing-trading... 1 loser ($112)

Down 0.4% overall

One failed trade.

2012-01-30T15:45:00.000-05:00

It was a hard day to read the markets today. I took a shot at a Gap Fill trade which failed this morning. One thing I learned after looking back at past Gap Fills is that the successful ones tend to form off S/R levels from the previous afternoon. A small detail I missed when studying this setup over the weekend.

@ 9:34 ES Gap Fill... ($92)

Closing the week up slightly.

2012-01-27T14:09:00.003-05:00

Closed out one trade today up one tick, closing out the week up $62. Just two days left for me to try and finish the month in the black.

@ 10:13 ES Long ... + $7

Recouping some losses today.

2012-01-26T15:15:00.006-05:00

Caught one setup early when price pulled back to a support level in the ES contract. The rest of the day was too choppy for me, stayed on the sidelines.

@9:40 ES Long $145

Down ($85)

2012-01-23T15:47:00.001-05:00

A down day today after taking two trades. The first rolled over on me, while the second would have worked had I not raised my stop so early (one of those repeated rookie mistakes).

($80)

($5)

Down ($5) for the week.

2012-01-20T11:59:00.002-05:00

Just one trade for the week which was basically a breakeven trade. I spent more time focusing on finding other ways to spot potential setups than I did trading. The market keeps bouncing off the S/R levels I draw, but does so without any type of price action I recognize as a setup. It's too choppy most of the time. So I set out to find another way of spotting those reversals.

One method that looks promising is to watch the bid and ask volume. When they diverge at my levels, it often times lead to a reversal. Today's trade was the first using this approach. I probably picked the wrong day to try this considering the low volume we had up until lunch. So far it's still a work in progress...

@ 11:14 ES trade ($5)

First trade using the Bid/Ask volume.

Down ($322) this week.

2012-01-13T11:42:00.002-05:00

It was a difficult market for me to read this week with far too much chop. Luckily I was on the sidelines most of the time.

Day-trading... ($210)
Swing-trading... (112)

Down day by ($210)

2012-01-12T15:15:00.003-05:00

The first trade I should have passed on, the middle chart really didn't look weak enough. The second one had more going for it, turned out good that I bailed early, usually it doesn't.

@ 11:54 ES Testing the morning lows ($160)

@ 15:00 NQ Testing resistance ($50)
Got out ahead of my stop when the trade stalled and started higher. Just didn't want to take the full hit for a second time today.

Swing Trade Exit

2012-01-10T10:15:00.002-05:00

SWN Swing Trade ($112.56)
I decided not to wait till my stop was hit, this trade looked too bearish and very unlikely to recover any time soon.

2012-01-06T12:18:00.006-05:00

Closing out the first week of the year flat with very little activity. I opened a swing trade position in SWN just before the close on Thursday at $33.65. SWN had what looked like bullish price action as it reacted to the lows made in October.

Have a good weekend!

The Plan for 2012

2012-01-04T15:59:00.003-05:00

I've spent the last three weeks studying my past trades, looking at what did and didn't work for me last year, firming up a few rules, experimenting with different time frame combinations, and practicing a lot.

I was tempted a few times last year to stop sharing my painful process of trying to trade for a living. Hanging it all out there for anyone to see, especially when I'm not progressing as well as I thought I would at this stage, is not a lot of fun. But I've seen too many other blogs give up and disappear, or my favorite, claim they got big jobs working for a firm and can no longer divulge what they're doing (as if anyone really believes that). So I'm going to stick to my original mission with this blog and continue until I finally reach that point where I am "trading for a living" (hopefully before my first social security check arrives).

As far as posting goes, I'll only post when I actually made a trade that day, and as usual, to prove I'm not full of crap I'll always include a snapshot of the "trade book" to prove it was for real. Futures statements I'll post when I get them.

As far as trading goes, my focus is on watching price when it gets to support or resistance levels, then carefully reading those candles to see if I get a clear indication that price is about to move off that level. That big hurdle I'm still trying to over come is being patient, disciplined, and focused enough when price does reach those levels and making the right decisions.

Good luck to all you guy's out there, let's see if we can all improve a little this year.

2011 Results

2012-01-03T16:27:00.004-05:00

It was another single digit down year.

Futures account... (7.44%)

Stock trading acc.. (0.85%)

Made alot of mistakes last year, and learned alot too. Now it's time to put those lesons to work.

2011-12-19T16:37:00.004-05:00

With volume dropping off so much already I'm going to go ahead and take off until after the new year. I hope you guys have a great holiday and a Happy New Year!!!

See you in January!

2011-12-15T17:04:00.002-05:00

Once again I started in the red, finished up slightly by the afternoon.

@11:47 NQ Trade ($45)
The 50 tick chart's diverging bottom was probably a bit thin.

@ 13:43 NQ Trade +$60
Late entry on this one, reversed just one tick from my exit level. Bailed out when price started chopping sideways under the target.

Starting in the red, then closing flat.

2011-12-12T15:57:00.003-05:00

A little stressful today. Started off by taking a setup I have no business taking, S/R breakouts. I rarely make money on those. But I figured it was a small loss compared to the potential gain, not a good reason for taking it.

During the second half I made a slightly better decision when taking the setup I saw off the 9-minute chart. This time it was off a strong support level with supporting price action at the lows.

@ 10:40... ES Day-trade (Breakdown at support) ($130)
Tried to catch a run to the downside when price broke below support.

@ 14:00 UPRO long of support. + $138.97
Used UPRO due to needing a 4-point stop. I saw signs from the hourly to the 9-minute that the level was being rejected. Lots of chop after entering this trade.

Trading Records

Down ($8) after a rookie mistake.

2011-12-08T15:46:00.001-05:00

Today was not a good execution day. I took the first two setups I saw, but then chickened out on the third after the NQ loss. I let that loss influence my decision, rookie mistake.

@ 9:35 Swing Trade turns into day trade
This was suppose to be a multiday trade but I exited when the market started responding positively to news out of Europe. Used the inverse ETF (SH)

@ 9:50 NQ Daytrade ($55)

Trading record

Down day.

2011-12-06T16:24:00.000-05:00

As the market gets choppier my win loss ratio is really suffering compared to what it was the last two months. I need to be a little more selective so I don't end up giving back what little I've made in the futures account this year.

@ 11:03 ES Daytrade ($67.50)

One Trade.

2011-12-01T15:39:00.001-05:00

@11:40 UPRO ETF daytrade. ($76)
I needed a wider stop so I went with the 3x ETF. I totally screwed this trade up when I used the low of the wrong candle for placing my stop. I used a .10 cent instead of .40 cent stop.

November Futures Statement

2011-12-01T14:46:00.002-05:00

End of month report.

2011-11-30T15:44:00.002-05:00

Ending the month with slightly more activity then the previous month. I was down fractionally in the stock trading account, while gaining more this month in the futures account.

Stock Trading... (0.08%)
Futures Trading... + 5.97%
Overall .................. +0.23%

Today's trades from 9:30 to 9:42

Took 3 ES trades trying to catch a reversal off the 1227.63 level which was a very strong support/resistance level going back a few weeks. Took a loss on the first two, then back to only a $3 loss after the third attempt finally worked.

Trading records

Starting the week in the red.

2011-11-21T15:51:00.001-05:00

I spent some time this weekend studying a slightly different setup than what I usually trade and started the morning off a little too eager. The (TQQQ) ETF trade I took was "close" but didn't quite have everything going for it that it should have. As it always turns out, it turned out to be a loser.

@ 10:40.... TQQQ Daytrade. ($353)

One trade today.

2011-11-17T15:35:00.004-05:00

Got lucky this morning when I sat down at the desk just in time to see a setup forming around 9:00 am. It turned out to be one of my longer runs coming in at 4 points.

@ 9:00 ES Daytrade

Trading Record

One little trade for the day.

2011-11-14T15:02:00.002-05:00

@14:15 SPXU Day Trade Used the ETF again due to using a wider stop and potential longer term hold. Once price started consolidating and forming a divergence in MACD I raised my stop to even +. My stop turned out to be a penny too tight.

Trade Record

Two Trades Today!

2011-11-10T15:00:00.000-05:00

Finally, a couple of setups where I could read the price action.

@ 10:30 NQ Daytrade

@ 11:00 UPRO (ETF) Daytrade I used the ETF on this setup thinking I might hold on to it longer term, but remembered I never do well trying to catch a runner and exited after hitting what would have been my target using the futures.

Trading Records

2011-11-04T11:56:00.002-04:00

No trades on my end this week, closing flat.

I'm having trouble reading this market right now. Trying to stay disciplined and take only the clear and obvious reversal price action. I am noticing more subtle setups that form most day's. I'm just not quick enough yet to recognize those in time.

October Results

2011-10-31T17:12:00.004-04:00

A very slow month in terms of trades, but did manage to close in the black.

Stock trading account = (.15%)
Futures trading account = + 4.5%
Overall results = + .05 %

2011-10-28T15:56:00.002-04:00

Ending the week on an up tick without any losers for a change. Still missing a couple trade setups here and there, but not as bad as before.

Have a good weekend!

Two trades today.

2011-10-26T15:03:00.005-04:00

Allot of chop and conflicting price action today, but I did find these two setups to trade.

@ 10:37 SPXU Day-trade +$8
Used the ETF on this one so I could use a wider stop. As soon as MACD started diverging on the 1-minute I raised my stop to even.

@ 11:28 ES Day-trade + $95
Barely caught this one and got in one tick late. I almost raised my target to see if it might turn into a runner, but had to remind myself that that has never worked for me.

Trading records

A tiny gain for the day.

2011-10-24T15:22:00.001-04:00

10.24.11 @11:00 ES day-trade + $7
Second time this month I raise my stop to even plus one to cover commissions and the ES drops right to that point then turns and hits my target.

One breakeven trade.

2011-10-19T15:25:00.000-04:00

@ 3:15 NQ Day-trade
Moved in my favor just over 2-points before falling back to my +1 tick stop.

Frustrating Week

2011-10-14T12:06:00.002-04:00

I'm still having problems adjusting to the market's new rhythm. Identifying potential turning points has been a challenge. It's very different than it was the last two months. I've been experimenting with using the one minute charts, hopefully that helps a little next week.

For the week I closed out one swing-trade for a ($150) loss, and made one ES day-trade which stopped me out with a one tick profit (no point in posting that chart).

2011-10-10T10:39:00.001-04:00

@ 10:30... SQQQ Swing-trade exit.
After the news came out from Europe this morning concerning the banking rescue I closed out my short fund position a little early.

2011-10-05T15:14:00.001-04:00

@ 14:55 NQ Day-trade + 5-points
My only trade for the day...

Trading records

2011-10-03T13:08:00.001-04:00

@ 10:50 SQQQ (inverse Nasdaq ETF) Swing trade entry.
I took a very small position in this ETF in case we do get that next leg down.

September / Q3

2011-09-30T14:57:00.002-04:00

Down .82% for September
Up .012% for Q3
2011 YTD -.7%

I made too many mistakes this month, like trading setups which I hadn't practiced very much. Not a good month at all execution wise.

2011-09-27T12:03:00.001-04:00

9.27.11 @ 10:48 UPRO Day-trade ($27)
Tried to catch a long off support using the UPRO ETF since I needed a wider stop.

2011-09-23T13:50:00.001-04:00

Ending the week down ($100) on 3 trades.

@9:33 ES Day-trade + 2-points

*I'm posting both the ES & NQ charts because I'm using them together. Reversal price action on one leads to a reversal on both usually.

2011-09-22T14:06:00.001-04:00

@14:00 Early exit on BRCM swing trade.
With the market in such a strong down move I figured the odds of getting stopped out were high so I bailed out early.

2011-09-20T14:49:00.001-04:00

@ 2:40 BRCM Swing trade entry
BRCM is breaking above it's 200 day mov.avg. with strong looking weekly price action.

2011-09-19T14:45:00.003-04:00

@ 13:21 UPRO Daytrade
Saw this setup in the NQ and used the UPRO ETF. I was just a little too quick to raise my stop to entry.

Trading Records

Nothing this week.

2011-09-16T16:44:00.002-04:00

No trades this week. Due to how the S&P's fluctuating right now I'm having to watch the 700 tick instead of the 3500 tick chart for reversal setups. That chart moves 5 time faster, and I've been a little too slow to catch the 6 or so nice reversals that formed on that time frame this week.

A week with far too many rookie mistakes.

2011-09-09T10:34:00.003-04:00

This week was filled with rookie mistakes, every trade I made was a loser. My two mistakes were taking a trade which was not a setup I've been practicing, I was too eager to try and catch the next leg down in the market. The second came when I didn't look at the intra-day charts close enough to confirm that there was enough weakness at the upper bands.

@ 10:00 EP Swing Trade
Screwing up again. Got into a rush going through my list this morning and made a bad decision to short EP. The 120-minute chart did not show enough weakness. As soon as I realized this mistake I covered.

Another down day.

2011-09-08T15:28:00.001-04:00

Options position exit...
The more I thought about it the more this trade seemed like a mistake. So I cut my losses.

A Down Day.

2011-09-06T13:51:00.005-04:00

I made a big mistake today trading too large of a position with too tight of a stop. A better approach would have been 100-200 shares with a stop at recent lows for the SPXU, or just using options with a stop set for when the SPY reaches $124 (which is what I did with the two options contracts).

@ 9:10 Swing Trade Entry (SPXU)

@ 1:45 Swing Trade Exit (SPXU)

@ 2:20 Opened SDS Dec Call Options position @ $3.35

Trading Records

Closing out the month in the black.

2011-08-31T11:59:00.007-04:00

Closing out the month with a gain. It was the first active month ever where all trades were either winners or exited at my entry, losing only the cost of commissions. May have just been a lucky streak, or maybe all those months of practicing are finally paying off.

Monthly P&L Chart

Today's Trade

@9:20 NQ Trade ($10)
Lowered stop early when the decline stalled.

Trading Records

August Statement

Closing out swing trades today.

2011-08-29T13:28:00.000-04:00

@ 9:58 EL Swing Trade Exit +5.07 p.s.
It hit my 2 x risk mark this morning.

@ 10:30 ISRG Swing Trade Exit + 28 p.s.
When I saw the market start rolling over right at previous highs I bailed early to preserve my gains in case of a deeper pullback in the Nasdaq.

Trading Records

Small Gain For The Week

2011-08-26T11:00:00.004-04:00

This has turned out to be a pretty good week for me. P&L wise it was so so, up 1/2%, my overall execution was a little better than in the past. I'm still missing some though, mostly those that form early on. It's not great, but a step in the right direction.

I'm carrying two long positions (EL) & (ISRG) over the weekend, so far they're hanging in there.

Have a good weekend!

Today's Trades

2011-08-25T15:01:00.001-04:00

@ 10:43 BAC Exit
With fresh bad news coming out from Europe about possible bank troubles there I decided to pull the plug and take my profits early.

@ 11:13 ES Trade

Trades

Talk About Dumb Luck.

2011-08-25T09:20:00.002-04:00

From The Wall Street Journal

"Bank of America shares are up 23% to $8.65 in premarket trading, from $6.99 yesterday, on news that Warren Buffett is buying a $5 billion stake."

2011-08-24T15:45:00.002-04:00

8.24.11.... Opening new swing trade position in BAC @ 7.02

2011-08-24T14:34:00.004-04:00

8.24.11 NQ Trade
I just barely caught this one. I lowered my stop to even quickly and tried to catch a longer downside run. As soon as I saw the Hammer and two up candles forming I bailed.

2011-08-24T12:01:00.002-04:00

8.24.11 QID (Inverse ETF) Trade
I went with the ETF instead of mini's because I thought the stop would have to be too wide. Turns out it would have only been 2 points, the setup was forming fast so I didn't take the time to check. I was going for a 10 point target on the futures to close out the ETF trade.

2011-08-24T11:05:00.001-04:00

8.24.11 Opening swing trade positions in EL & ISRG.

2011-08-23T10:44:00.004-04:00

8.23.11 SDS ETF Trade
Closed out the SDS trade when I saw signs that the S&P may be forming a bottom just above the previous lows.

I used the ES charts for timing the SDS ETF trade.

2011-08-18T11:24:00.003-04:00

8.18.11 SPXU
Took another shot when weakness formed at the highs.

2011-08-18T10:50:00.003-04:00

8.18.11 SPXU
Tried to catch a run back to the lows.

8.18.11 @ 7:30 am Opened a longer term position in SDS at the start of premarket trading.

2011-08-09T11:26:00.003-04:00

8/9/11 RWM
Got a late entry, couldn't decide on whether or not to take it. I didn't have a target on this one, I was holding and trailing my stop lower trying to catch a runner to the day's lows.(I was long the RWM, not short)

($164)

2011-07-14T09:57:00.004-04:00

Opened a position in ATI off trend line and horizontal support. Long at 62.85 with a stop at 60.40. My target is $67.85

12:59.. I decided to exit and take my losses early after realizing that I made a mistake on this entry. I should not have gone lone just under a resistance level. I should have waited for the first candle to breakout through that trend line then bought on a breakout of that day's high. Down ($164) on this trade.

Closed For The Summer.

2011-06-08T09:01:00.006-04:00

This will be my last post for the summer. Between the usual "summer doldrums" and my own trading issues, there's just not much to show you right now. I'm taking the next 4 months to workout the kinks. I'll also be spending far more time on the simulator than I have in the past to improve my ability to read price action.

I plan to resume posting on October 1st, the beginning of the 4th quarter. Hopefully by that time I'll have something constructive to share with you guys. In the mean time for the sake of proper record keeping, I'll continue to post my trade charts under Winners and Losers on the right hand side of the page.

I hope you guys do well this summer, see you in October !

May Statements

2011-06-06T10:18:00.003-04:00

Futures

Stocks

No Trading This Week

2011-06-03T15:01:00.008-04:00

I ended up spending more time on the simulator again this week after all, so there were no live day-trades taken. I couldn't find anything on the swing trade side.

For the month of May I was down ($864), putting me in the red for the year. I made a lot of mistakes in both swing and day-trading last month that cost me. I need to be a lot more thorough when scanning through my swing trade list of 300 stocks every day. I tend to rush through it too fast and that cost me a few good opportunities.

No Trading This Week

2011-05-26T10:13:00.001-04:00

I didn't find any promising swing trade setups this week. Things are still on hold on the day trading side while I continue to study, practice and watch in real time, alternative entries that don't require the cleaner price action I've depended on in the past. I'm hoping to get back to live intra-day trading by next week.

I hope everyone did well this week, have a good extended weekend!

Down ($26) for the week.

2011-05-20T15:34:00.001-04:00

Another uneventful week this week with only two swing trades. I was quick to bail out on those two trades when what looked like potential reversal candles formed. It paid off in both cases.

My slightly different day-trading approach didn't give me anything this week, too much chop. I'm back to looking for ways to spot reversals at S/R levels which doesn't require such clean price action. I've done this before and found something that worked, but it was still dependent on the degree of chop in the market. In the end I think the guy's at SMB have the best approach by teaching their traders to read the tape. Choppy markets which are the norm these days shouldn't effect them very much. I'm not so sure though that a person trading from home can learn that method very effectively.

Have a good weekend!

Monday.... ($37)
After reviewing and finalizing my swing trade criteria I bailed and took a small loss on STJ. Both the weekly and the 2-hour chart didn't have the right patterns. The setup was formed by a news event too.

Tuesday.... $11
I lowered my stop to the morning highs after a strong move down this morning. It found support at the bottom of a gap up made back in March and hit that stop before lunch.

Down ($155) this week.

2011-05-13T16:10:00.002-04:00

A slow week again, took two small loses on the swing trade side and ending the week with one short position still open. I bailed early on OMC since it was going against me on the first day in. In most cases that's not a good sign.

Last Friday afternoon I made the decision to stop daytrading, it was time to trow in the towel. Then over the weekend I had an idea, checked it out and it looked promising. I spent this week watching in real time to see how this approach worked, so far so good. Next week I'm back to watching my markets intraday and using this slightly different method. I may have finally solved my issue with missing trades and taking choppy setups. We'll see next week....

Have a good weekend guy's!

Trades this week....

Wednesday.... ($8.95)
VLO stops out near the open.

Friday... ($150)
Sold out before the close due to it not going in my direction the first day in.

Down ($636) for the week.

2011-05-06T14:43:00.003-04:00

A slow and tough week. Things are getting worse instead of better on the daytrading side. The way my two currency markets have been fluctuating I'm not seeing anything that I recognize as reversal setups. The one trade I did take didn't work out this week.

My SHLD swing trade got nailed this week when they announced poor earnings outlook. It took a nice 9% drop at the open.

There are definitely issues when it comes to daytrading which don't exist in swing trading. One big factor are all the algo's and HFT's that create a lot of chop in the intra-day charts. I'm finding it much easier to read weekly/daily charts than my tick charts. I'm setting a time limit for myself and if I can't turn things around by that date then I think going strictly to swing/position trading will be the best route for me. I have a few weeks left, we'll see what happens.

Have a good weekend!

Tuesday.... ($529)
Bad earnings outlook sinks SHLD trade.

Thursday.... EC trade ($157)

April P&L Report

2011-04-29T10:52:00.003-04:00

Finishing the month up $373 on light trading volume. All gains were from swingtrading, while the losses were on the daytrading side.

2011 Monthly Graph

Daily P&L Graph

Up $1071 for the week.

2011-04-29T10:47:00.002-04:00

Daytrading; Still working on doing a better job of reading the markets. With the market's rhythm constantly changing it's not been easy. Even as choppy as it's been lately, there are more trading opportunities out there than I thought there were. I just wasn't reading the market the way I should have been.

Swingtrading; Things are still moving along in this department. Opened a new position in SHLD this week with a stop now at entry, and I took profits in my CHRW trade on Thursday.

It was a very slow but profitable week.

Thursday....
Closed out the CHRW position a little early since it was right at the high side of past resistance.

Down ($641) for the week.

2011-04-21T14:26:00.000-04:00

It was week of sideways chop in the currencies, a swing trade stopped out, and stressful non-trading situations. I'm glad to end to the week early.

Tuesday.... ($641)
EMR stops out.

Down ($728) for the week.

2011-04-15T10:49:00.004-04:00

Got hit with a losing swing and day trade this week. Two of my swing trade positions (EMR) & (CHRW) are still open and hanging in there. I found a hand full of short swing trades I should have taken earlier this week. Unfortunately I had an upside bias when I scanned those charts. That bias cost me.

There were additional day trades I could have taken. A couple were missed and a couple others I just wasn't sure about and passed on those. Still not where I should be in the day-trading department.

Monday.... ($55)

Thursday.... ($673)

PRU gets stopped out.

Slow week, up $117

2011-04-08T10:51:00.002-04:00

Day-trading was very slow again this week with only one trade taken. This time it was more of an issue with how price was fluctuating versus my missing setups.

Swing trading picked up this week. I closed out my JNY position this week, and opened three new positions in CHRW, PRU, and EMR on Monday morning. The new positions have a 2 x ATR target, so those will take a while to reach that point.

All in all not a bad week. There's still a lot of room for improvement in my day-trading, while my swing-trading is pretty much on track. Once those swing trades close out my P&L numbers are going to be a little bigger than in the past. Hopefully to the upside.

Trades This Week...

Monday... ($5)

Tuesday... + $122.00
Closed JNY position .09 cents from my target. +$122.00

+ $500 for the week with 1 open possition.

2011-04-01T10:24:00.003-04:00

Not much to report on the day-trading side this week. I did miss a couple unfortunately. It's also been fairly choppy again this week. I'm back to drawing S/R lines again and have been studying a different way of reading price when it reaches those lines. I'm hoping I'll find more opportunities with this slightly different approach. We'll see next week.

On the swing-trading side I did find and open two new positions in BXP and JNY. On Friday I took profits 20 cents early in BXP, and exited my EWJ position from last week at break even. My JNY position is still open.

Trades This Week...

Closed EWJ Position at break even (after commissions).

Closed BXP position for + $506

March & Q1 P&L Report

2011-03-31T15:47:00.002-04:00

+ $170 For The Week.

2011-03-25T10:47:00.004-04:00

It was mostly the same story as last week, missed a couple, and couldn't find a clean entry on a few due to chop. I was only a little better about staying focused when I needed to be. One area I'm still weak in is being completely detached from the money and out come of any one trade. Looking at the market from a purely "probability" angle is still a work in progress.

Trades...

Took two trades this week, one loser one winner. The winner was the first in a very long time to hit it's target. With better execution there should have been two more trades this week.

3/22/11 ($70)

3/25/11 + $243

Note: I'm not posting the snap shot of the book for proof that the trades were real anymore. That info can be seen on the statements I post at the end of the month.

Which Traits Predict Success? (The Importance of Grit)

2011-03-19T05:00:00.000-04:00

A good article to read.

2011-03-18T13:21:00.001-04:00

Another slow week.

On the swing trading side, there's too much chop and overnight risk right now. As far as day-trading goes, I continue to be sidelined there too. Partly my fault, I'm working on those issues, and partly due to the reduced volatility in the currencies.

I've been experimenting with different time frames this week to see what works now. I also went from monitoring one to seven markets. That of course was information overload so now I'm back down to two, the Euro and Nasdaq.

With a little luck and a little more volatility, hopefully I'll have something to show you next week.

Have a good weekend!

2011-03-16T11:57:00.003-04:00

Just a quick update.

My trading activity is still very low right now so the Friday updates will continue for the foreseeable future. On the swing trading side I'm still looking for setups everyday but haven't seen anything promising for a while. The more the market pulls back, the closer I'll be to getting back into that game again.

On the day trading side I'm still trying to adjust to the lower levels of volatility in the currency markets. The time frames I was using are too high for the current conditions, so that requires some trial and error in getting setup with the right charts and also adjusting to a faster pace with those shorter time frames.

The biggest mistake I've made over the past several years that I'm trying to correct now is placing too much emphasis on day trading and paying little attention to my swing trading. Swing trading is so much easier than day trading, it's a slower pace that requires complete focus once per day for a short period of time. Day trading is a whole other world with issues that don't exist in swing trading. Swing trading will definitely be my main focus going forward. In the mean time I'll continue working on day trading, I still want to master this game.

Again, Fridays will be the day I post all my trades for the week along with my P&L. I'll resume daily updates once I'm consistently trading most every day.

Thanks for following along!
Michael

A slow week.

2011-03-11T11:46:00.001-05:00

I have no trades to report this week. It's been getting harder and harder to find trade setups in the currencies. I thought things would change with the alerts I now use to signal just before a new candle forms, but no such luck. After looking at daily charts with the ATR & Volatility indicators I now see why I've had no luck. The volatility is drying up in the currencies. The only markets I see that still have a fair amount are the indexes and oil. At this point I need to either change markets or wait it out. With the dollar bouncing off support driving currencies lower, hopefully that will bring some volatility back to the futures.

Dollar Index Chart

Have a good weekend!

Future Posts

2011-03-08T17:34:00.002-05:00

As long as my activity is a slow as it has been it doesn't make sense to post every day. So untill I start making far more trades I'll be posting once a week on Fridays with a summery of how I did and charts of the trades I made. The next post will be this Friday, see you then.

2011-03-08T11:46:00.006-05:00

I don't know if it's me or the way the currency markets were trading today, but I couldn't find any clear triggers to enter a trade. I did see a couple where one time frame looked like a turn was possible, but then the next time frame wasn't so clear. There was one setup in the Aussie Dollar that I didn't see due to not having the highest time frame on the screen.

No trades today again.

BTW Ron, I did see a case this morning around 10:00 where the S&P was hitting support and the Euro was setting up with reversal price action and MACD-H divergence. I was hoping to enter on a trigger on the next lower time frame but didn't get it.

2011-03-07T10:53:00.001-05:00

I had to cut out early, so no trades today.

Comment Moderation

2011-03-07T06:27:00.005-05:00

After blogging for 3 years I'm finding it necessary to start filtering the comment section. There's a child out there who instead of playing with his toys is out roaming the grownup blogs. So to filter out this immature nonsense in the comment section, future comments will be checked before posting.

Last week Ron left a comment about how he uses the S&P for trading the currencies. I've briefly used the dollar index to time S&P trades, but not the S&P for currency trades. I took a little time this weekend to see how the S&P and Euro fluctuate and did notice how when the S&P has strong reversal price action and divergences in MACD while the Euro has the same, the odds are very high that a trend change is coming in the Euro. I'll be spending more time studying how to use this. Thanks Ron for sharing this!

2011-03-04T13:59:00.001-05:00

Aside from the one trade on Monday it was an uneventful week, down ($95).

My main focus this week was to devise a method to help me catch more reversals. The TickCountDown indicator does a great job. With an alert enabled, it lets me know when each candle is closing out and the next one starting. Now it's just a matter of quickly scanning across my screens and being able to recognize a potential setup forming and sticking to that chart until it does.

Next week I'll be more focused on taking those setups. Hopefully all goes well, if not then I'll be Simming in real time for the rest of the month.

2011-03-03T15:01:00.001-05:00

Nothing to report today.

February Statements

2011-03-03T07:44:00.003-05:00

Swing Trading Account

Futures Account

Long road a head.

2011-03-02T12:56:00.003-05:00

I think it's going to take a while longer than I thought it would to match the performance in real time as I have in practice mode. I now have alerts that go off each time a new candle forms on my upper charts, that helps to get my attention every few minutes. So the issue with missing setups is mostly resolved.

I noticed this morning that I'm a little more conservative with the price action I'm willing to trigger off of when real money is at stake. Though being more conservative is not all bad, I do need to be much more careful about avoiding choppy setups which is the number one cause of my account draw-down. There's a fine line between being too cautious and aggressive. I keep wavering between the two.

Depending on how this week goes I may put myself on "real-time" simulated trading. If I do I'll continue documenting and posting as before, I'll just label the trades as "Sims". I'm thinking I may have jumped the gun by going from practicing with back data to real-time money trading without first making sure I can replicate my results in real-time, which is such a different pace than toggling through a day in 15 minutes.

In the meantime at least I did manage to get my act together on the swing trading side. Even if I were to Sim the currencies for the rest of the year (which I would hate like hell) there's still the potential for having a good year with swing trading.

I passed on a pullback (the first after a directional change) at 8:25 this morning. It looks great in hindsight but at the time I just couldn't decide on the middle charts price action. It seemed a little choppy and didn't look like an obvious reversal setting up on that middle chart. That unfortunately was the only setup of the day for me.

2011-03-01T13:05:00.000-05:00

I didn't take any trades today in the Euro. There was a long setup that I almost took at 9:15 am, but the trigger candle was fairly long and the Euro had been choppy all morning. Long candles in choppy markets is not an environment where I've ever made money in.

On the swing trading side I'm still sidelined there. It'll be a week or two, if, we get more of a pullback before opportunities start popping up again.

February P&L

2011-02-28T16:24:00.002-05:00

Daily P&L for February.

Down ($95)

2011-02-28T10:15:00.000-05:00

I finally figured out how to setup my alert on the Tickcountdown indicator so that it'll let me know 20 ticks a head of time when the next candle starts. As long as I'm in ear shot of the computer there's no excuse now for missing any thing. This will help me get one step closer to following the market candle by candle, the same way I've been following while practicing.

My new work day, based on volume trends during the day is from 7:00 am to 1:00 pm. I'm closing out early due to both an outside appointment and how the Euro is already trading like it normally does in the late afternoon.

Closing the day down ($95) on one trade.

Today's Trades

Closing the week down ($14).

2011-02-25T11:37:00.001-05:00

I stayed glued to those charts today but still nothing, it was too choppy again.

For the week.

Swing trading wise there was nothing this week. Everything was either fairly extended, or not even close to setting up yet.

On the Day trading side, that's still a work in progress. There is such a big difference between toggling through a days data in 15 minutes looking for trades and doing it in real time over an 8 hour period. Being focused enough for 15 minutes is easy, 8 hours, not so much. Once I figure that one out there should rarely be a day with no trades.

Technically my brain is not cut out for day trading, the pace is too slow and boring in between trades. Swing trading is so much easier. I go through my list once per day and that requires around 30 minutes of my attention, no problem. I can enter my conditional orders before the open and walk away.

Even though I have the attention span of a gnat, I believe it's possible to change and over come one's weaknesses if you want it bad enough. Had I realized what my major weakness was earlier, like in the early 2000's when I went full time, I'd be much further along now. It goes to show how important it is to not only learn to analyze the markets but also yourself. All this time I kept thinking I wasn't trading the right markets, patterns, setups, needed a better system and so on. While all along it was just me, my inability to stay detached from the out come of any one trade, to stay focused, not to be in such a rush to make the big bucks by trading actively, to be patient, and the biggest killer, the inability to recognize the market conditions where I should be more aggressive and where I should be on the side lines.

If only there were such thing as a time machine.

Closing the week down ($14)

Out of office today.

2011-02-24T08:38:00.002-05:00

2011-02-23T16:01:00.000-05:00

Made a tick, lost a tick, only the broker got paid today. Finishing the day down ($14).

I did just a little better at watching the potential turning points today. The Euro was a little less choppy, hopefully I'll have a couple of good opportunities before the end of the week.

Today's Trades

2011-02-22T16:01:00.000-05:00

It was an uneventful day on my end. Out of the 340 stocks on my newly updated list I didn't see anything that looked like it was at a turning point. The Euro charts where choppy all day, so no way I'm touching that.

Swing trading wise I'll probably be sidelined until we get a few down days in a row. Hopefully the Euro cleans up a little tomorrow.

End of week report.

2011-02-18T13:52:00.004-05:00

Big screw up week, I get an F for execution this week. My losses were on two swing trades, the first one I bailed on before it could hit my stop. Well, it wouldn't have and it's back up again. The second one I didn't check the earnings date properly, shouldn't have taken at all. Futures trading was even worse, didn't lose any thing there, just missed all of them.

The question is, what am I going to do about it next week. For starters I'm only going to watch the Euro contract, it'll be much easier to keep up with that one market. Swing trading wise I'll check those earnings dates better and not try to be so smart and bailout ahead of time, it'll just have to hit my stop, and if it gaps through it then screw it, it's a chance I'll have to take.

Down ($270) for the week.

2011-02-18T11:31:00.002-05:00

Once again I've reduced my markets down to one, the Euro. That's one thing that's been different between my real time trading and practice, in practice I was only watching one market at a time. It's much easier to keep up with one versus four markets.

I didn't end up taking any trades, not because I missed them as usual but because it too choppy on my time frames. Next week we'll see if this new approach helps.

Have a good weekend guys.

So Close

2011-02-17T15:51:00.002-05:00

There was one very nice setup today which I saw but was just 3-seconds too slow to grab it. I didn't have the 6E DOM open, by the time I had my contract quantity entered the Euro had moved 3 ticks past my entry point and I didn't want to chase it. There was a second pullback around 11:00 but it's setup was a little too choppy. From there the markets kept rallying so the rest of the pullbacks were a no go, I'm only trading the first 2 pullback after a trend change, they have the higher odds.

No activity here today.

2011-02-16T15:41:00.001-05:00

Today was one of those mixed days. I did good avoiding the temptation to trade during the choppy periods, the number one reason for my losses and over 50% draw down. But I also missed a couple. My biggest priority right now is to stop the bleeding in my futures account, from there getting better at catching the price action I'm looking for comes next. It was however very good to see that the setups I'm trying to catch are working great, so at least I know what I'm looking for continues to work.

I don't know if any of you ever go through this, but when I stare too long at the charts I eventually end up seeing what I want to see. It's as if I'm getting hypnotized by the zigzagging of the markets. At the same time if I'm too relaxed about watching I miss something. There seems to be a very fine line between watching too intensely and too lax. For the sake of my account I'm probably better off starting from too lax and ratchet it up slowly. That's my theory at least...

Down ($270) today.

2011-02-15T15:18:00.001-05:00

No futures trades today, made one swing trade which back fired on me because I didn't properly check when their earnings were announced. The end result was taking a small hit, about -.26%.

2/15 Swing Trade (WLT) ($261.52)
Total screw up on this one. The setup was fine, I thought earnings had been released early yesterday instead of last night. So it had a very choppy reaction to disappointing earnings this morning. I raised my stop to the early lows to get out without taking the whole 8 point stop I initially used. Gotta check those earnings more carefully next time.

2/15 Swing Trade ($9)
I bailed out early since this trade was so close to my stop and I didn't want to risk a possible gap through my stop tomorrow morning.

Today's Trades

2011-02-14T16:07:00.004-05:00

I didn't find anything on the daytrading side today, I'm trying to stay away from the choppier setups. I was hoping to open a swing trade but AXL never hit my entry price, so no trading today.

This is an important week for me. If I don't close out the week profitable on the daytrading side I'm going to stop trading live and go to the simulator instead. Once there I'll have to stay until I'm consistently profitable. There's such a big difference between my sim results and live. I was able to match my sim results on the swing trading side very quickly, but daytrading has turned out to be so much harder.

Here's what needs to happen this week. My biggest problem is taking choppy setups, which is rarely something I do in Sim mode, so I have to cut that out, that's costing me real money. Next is to be more alert when price reaches a potential turning point, and not miss anything. One thing I'll be reminding myself of is that I don't have to catch every reversal and pullback, just those which have clean price action, which isn't that many. Number one, stop trading chop, number two, be more alert. That's my mission this week.

My Evolution

2011-02-11T13:08:00.001-05:00

In the beginning I believed that I needed to create systems based on predefined patterns, or setups. Outline a set of rules on how to play these setups and I would be on my way to success. Well, it took me a long time but I finally figured out that wasn't the answer. Markets are constantly changing, add to that the ever growing computer trading, or "algo's & HFT's" as they're called, those patterns that worked so well back in the good old days just don't come around any more.

Then came Steve Nison. Now I thought I was really on to something. Unfortunately all I wanted to know was, what are the best reversal candles. That cost me a lot of money.

Then Ziad left his comments back in the Fall of 2009. I was more than a little bothered about what he said at first, but after reading those comments again and thinking about it over night I realized he was right and I was on the wrong path. It took me a while to get on the right path, I had to totally alter my approach, not an easy thing to do.

My new approach to trading in 2010 was to read the market and look for signs that price was losing momentum and starting to turn in a new direction (reversals within a trend mostly). I spent countless hours turning back my charts and toggling forward one candle at a time trying to learn how to read the clues that price action will give you as it's starting to reverse direction. It took a lot of practice, it wasn't something that could be accomplished over a weekend, or even a month for that matter.

It wasn't until the end of 2010 when I started getting fairly consistent results(in the simulator). I had spent a lot time practicing and documenting those trades to try and analyze what I was doing right, and wrong. Next came the biggest challenge of all. To replicate my simulator results in my real trading. At first I thought it was the issue with real money losses versus paper, a logical conclusion most people would come to. But that wasn't it. In the simulator I would go through a day's data in 15 minutes, it's very easy to stay focused for that short of a time span and not miss anything. In real time I get bored too easy, get distracted and sure enough miss something. I also noticed that in practice mode I was much better about reading price action on all the charts far more carefully than on live charts, which made a big difference in catching more winners. In Sim mode I was a great trader, live mode, not so much.

Present day. Fortunately I also practiced on the daily and weekly charts to improve my swing trading. To my surprise after all the trouble I've had with daytrading I was able to match my Sim results in my real account right off the bat. My theory on that is, there's more time to think about taking the trade, the daily chart moves so much slower than a 900 tick. I've also noticed (in daytrading) that I want too badly to catch the next big reversal. I'm always looking back to see if there weren't clues I missed on the last reversal and how could I have caught it. Then when the next one is setting up I'll see what I want to see, take the trade, and sure enough miss a warning sign that should have kept me out. Think about how many times in a day the market will zigzag around, it easy to get caught up in thinking one should have traded a few of those. The end result, over trading and losses.

This is where I'm at now. My swing trading is doing well, so my main focus will be in that department. You'll be seeing a lot more of those trades being posted from here on (every trade I make is here on the blog). I'll be raising my risk to 1/2% then latter to 1%. In the mean time I'm sticking to trading only one contract at a time in the futures to reduce my loses. I'm working hard on being more patient and waiting for clean not choppy price action when the market reaches a potential turning point. The markets are choppy most of the time these days, so the number of opportunities are limited. One thing I've learned from analyzing both my real and Sim trades is that I have zero chance of making money in chop, which is why I need to be so careful about avoiding it. Fortunately there are enough opportunities out there that if I trade 10 or more contracts (in the future of course) I can do very well with those handful of trades. My biggest challenge is not to get distracted and miss anything, but also to not stare at the screen for so long that I start seeing what I want to see and take trades I should have passed on. It's going to take me a while, the turn a round won't come as easy in daytrading as it did in swing trading. Sooner or latter I'll get there though.

Closing out the week up $156

2011-02-11T13:01:00.002-05:00

Made money swing trading, gave half of it back daytrading.

@ 10:52 6E Long (7 ticks) ($95)
No regrets on this one, I thought it looked good.