I started the year off looking back at my trading records over the last 5 years to figure out if, where and when I typically have an edge. Countertrend trading were my biggest "no edge" trades with a 97% failure rate.
I've made two changes inspired by a webinare by Ziad at Opentrader and Jess at Rogue Traderette. First I reduced the markets I watch to 1, the S&P. There's no point in watching and trading multiple markets until I'm more consistent at trading. Then I added a much higher time frame giving me a total of three. The point of watching the higher chart is to keep me better in sync with the bigger picture. The support & resistance lines drawn off that chart also tend to deflect price far better then the ones drawn off the lower time frames I was using.
So far this year I've only made a handful of trades while spending more time simming and back checking how these new changes would have effected my past winners and losers. This week it's back to live trading to put these new changes to the test. Once I have a decent sample size of trades under my belt I'll post another update to let you know how it's working out.
Hope you guy's are getting a good start to the new year!
6 comments:
See you in the ring :)
See you there TST!
:-)
Michael,
Enjoyed your comments about working at this for 4 years. Me too. It's a darn hard business. Glad to hear from someone who's keeping at it and honest about the difficulty. I heard a comment from Laz at T3Live about how nothing is more frustrating than predicting random activity. Near random I'd like to think. It's not important what the market does next. It only matters what we do next. That's been helping me a lot.
Tommy,
Those guys @ T3 are pretty smart. We are definitely our own worst enemy aren't we.
Cool bike on your blog, used to have one myself years ago. I miss it!
hI M..just checking your blog ;)
Hi TST,
I'm still here! :)
I should have something to report soon.
Hope you're doing well!
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